The latest India Employment Report 2024, jointly published by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Institute of Human Development (IHD), reveals a stark reality: approximately 83 percent of India’s unemployed are young people.
Educational Shifts in Unemployment
The report highlights a significant shift in the profile of unemployed youth, particularly in their educational attainment. The proportion of educated young people among the unemployed has nearly doubled from 35.2 percent in 2000 to 65.7 percent in 2022.
Rising Dropout Rates and Quality Concerns
Despite increased enrollment in higher education, dropout rates remain high, especially in poorer states and among marginalized groups. The quality of education also remains a concern, with significant learning deficits observed across educational levels.
Trends in Youth Employment
Upsurge and Decline
Between 2000 and 2019, youth employment and underemployment surged, but the COVID-19 pandemic saw a decline. Educated youth, however, faced disproportionately higher levels of unemployment.
Fluctuating Labor Market Indicators
Labor force participation, worker population ratio, and unemployment rates declined from 2000 to 2018 but showed signs of improvement post-2019. However, the report urges cautious interpretation due to questions surrounding the drivers of these changes.
Challenges and Regional Disparities
Persisting Wage Stagnation
Real wages for both regular and self-employed workers have remained stagnant or declined post-2019. Additionally, a significant portion of unskilled casual workers did not receive mandated minimum wages in 2022.
Regional Employment Disparities
Significant variations in employment outcomes exist across states, with certain states consistently ranking lower in employment indicators. States like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh face persistent challenges in employment.
Navigating the Challenge
Youth Employment Prospects
India faces a critical juncture regarding youth employment, which could either harness or hinder its demographic advantage. While the youth population currently accounts for 27 percent of the total population, projections suggest a decrease to 23 percent by 2036.
Impact of COVID-19 and Technological Advancements
The pandemic exacerbated challenges in the youth labor market, leading to temporary worsening of indicators. Meanwhile, technological advancements have reshaped job demands, creating both opportunities and insecurities, particularly in the gig economy.
Addressing Skill Deficits and Gender Disparities
There’s a pressing need to bridge skill gaps among the youth, particularly in digital literacy. Gender disparities persist, with low rates of female labor force participation, especially among educated women. Social inequalities also hinder employment opportunities for marginalized groups despite improvements in educational attainment.
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